March delivered a surprising upside in job growth, with 228,000 new positions added – significantly exceeding the expected 135,000 to 140,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, this headline figure may be subject to revision in the coming months, as January and February saw downward adjustments totaling 48,000 fewer jobs.
Additionally, a closer look at the March data reveals some underlying weaknesses. The unemployment rate ticked up slightlyfrom 4.1% to 4.2%, and average weekly earnings only increased 0.3% from February and 3.2% year-over-year – down from 3.7% in the prior report. Hours worked also remained at 34.2 for a second straight month, just above the lowest level since 2010 outside of the COVID-19 period.
Furthermore, the job gains were also concentrated in specific age groups, with 20-24 year olds and those 55 and over seeing the biggest increases, while those in the prime earning ages of 25-54 actually lost 107,000 jobs.
What’s the bottom line?
While the headline job growth figure was stronger than expected, the March employment report comes with several important caveats that suggest underlying weakness in the labor market.