The Conference Board released their latest Leading Economic Index (LEI), which takes a broad look at the economy and tracks where it’s heading in the near term. September brought a 0.5% drop, which followed August’s 0.3% decline. This report has been negative for 29 out of the last 30 months, with the other month being flat.
What’s the bottom line? “Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025,” explained Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators.
This correlates with the Fed’s latest Beige Book, which is a survey of economic conditions around the country. The report noted that, “On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all districts since early September, though two districts reported modest growth. Reports on consumer spending were mixed, with some districts noting shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives.”