The number of open jobs declined modestly in February, down from 7.76 million in January to 7.57 million, falling short of estimates. The drop was particularly pronounced in sectors like trade, finance, and leisure and hospitality. The hiring rate (3.4%) and quit rate (2%) remained near decade lows, excluding the COVID-19 period. The low hiring rate poses challenges for the unemployed seeking new roles, while the soft quit rate indicates diminished confidence in the job market, aligning with ADP data showing lower pay premium incentives for switching jobs.
What’s the bottom line?
Job openings continue a downward trend, well below the 2022 peak of 1.2 million. Remote work has also led to job listings being posted across multiple states, potentially inflating the JOLTS data and indicating even fewer openings than reported. Additionally, the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons has significantly decreased from over 2 in 2022 to 1.1, which is another signal of underlying labor market weakness.