Initial Jobless Claims hit their lowest level since April, as 213,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. This reflects a decline of 6,000 from the previous week. However, Continuing Claims were a different story, as they surged by 36,000 to top 1.9 million for the first time in three years.

What’s the bottom line? While new unemployment filings were at seven-month lows, the elevated number of Continuing Jobless Claims shows that it’s taking longer for people to find jobs. And with many people only receiving benefits for 26 weeks, the fact that Continuing Claims are rising as people’s benefits are expiring also suggests weakness and a slower pace of hiring.

Even though home builder sentiment has started rising, builders pulled back on new construction last month, with Housing Starts falling 3.1% from September. Starts for single-family homes, which make up the bulk of homebuilding and are the most crucial due to buyer demand, were down nearly 7%. Building Permits, which reflect future construction, moved lower overall though Single-family Permits inched 0.5% higher.

What’s the bottom line? While higher mortgage rates slowed production in October, the impact of the hurricanes in the South also added to the weakness seen in construction activity last month. In broader terms, new home building is still not keeping up with demand as Housing Starts are near six-year lows. The limited new supply on the market relative to household growth should continue to support home prices.

Home builder sentiment rose for the third straight month, per the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), who reported that their Housing Market Index increased three points to 46 in November. Any score over 50 on this index, which runs from 0 to 100, signals that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

What’s the bottom line? While confidence remains below 50 in contraction territory, there was improvement in all three index components (buyer traffic, current and future sales expectations). Plus, future sales expectations jumped 7 points to 64, moving well above 50 into expansion territory. NAHB Chair, Carl Harris, confirmed that “builders anticipate an improved regulatory environment in 2025.”

Existing Home Sales, which reflect closings on existing homes, rebounded in October, up 3.4% from September and 2.9% from a year ago. This was the first annual increase in more than three years. The rise in closings last month makes sense, as the data likely reflects people who were shopping for homes in August and September when rates had moved lower.

What’s the bottom line? October’s improvement in Existing Home Sales may be a blip because of the subsequent rise in rates this fall. And while inventory also increased to 1.37 million units available for sale (+0.7% MoM and +19.1% YoY), it’s important to note that many homes counted in existing inventory are under contract and not truly available for purchase. In fact, there were only 954,000 “active listings” at the end of last month, so inventory is tighter than the reporting implies. Regarding demand, homes remained on the market for an average of 29 days in October, while 19% of homes sold above list price, showing that there are still bidding wars in about one-fifth of sales nationwide. Plus, competition is expected to rise when rates move lower.
All in all, the pent-up demand for homes combined with ongoing tight supply continues to bode well for housing as an investment and continued home price appreciation over time.

National Gingerbread Cookie Day is November 21, making it the perfect day to enjoy these soft and delicious cookies courtesy of Allrecipes. Yields 2 dozen cookies.

Preheat oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit. Add 2 tablespoons sugar to a small bowl and set aside.

In a large bowl, sift 2 1/4 cups all-purpose flour, 2 teaspoons ground ginger, 1 teaspoon baking soda, 3/4 teaspoon ground cinnamon, 1/2 teaspoon cloves and 1/4 teaspoon salt. In a separate large bowl, beat 3/4 cup butter (softened) and 1 cup sugar with an electric mixer until light and fluffy. Beat in 1 egg, then stir in 1/4 cup molasses and 1 tablespoon water. Gradually stir the sifted ingredients into the molasses mixture until well combined.

Use floured hands to shape dough into 24 walnut-sized balls. Roll each ball into reserved sugar until coated. Place cookies 2inches apart on ungreased cookie sheets. Flatten slightly with a glass.

Bake for 8 to 10 minutes, switching racks halfway through. Remove from oven and let cookies cool on the baking sheet for 5minutes before transferring to a wire rack to cool completely.

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 4,000 in the latest week, as 217,000 Initial Jobless Claims were reported. Continuing Claims also dropped by 11,000, with 1.873 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.

What’s the bottom line?
The low level of Initial Jobless Claims suggests that employers continue to hold on to their workers. Yet, Continuing Claims are still trending near some of the hottest levels we’ve seen in recent years, now topping 1.8 million for 23consecutive weeks. Employers have clearly slowed down their pace of hiring as challenges remain for job seekers searching for their next position.

Retail Sales rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% gain the market was expecting. The Core reading, which gets plugged into GDP, was weaker than estimates, though this miss was offset by a big revision higher to September’s reading.

What’s the bottom line? Overall, the sales figures for October show that consumer spending remains resilient ahead of the all-important holiday shopping season. Plus, it’s likely that Hurricanes Helene and Milton kept sales figures from being stronger last month.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation on the wholesale level, rose 0.2% in October, with the annual reading jumping from an upwardly revised 1.9% to 2.4%. This was hotter than the 2.3% that the market was anticipating. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month and the year-over-year reading moved higher to 3.1%.
What’s the bottom line?

While the stalling progress on inflation has caused some fears that inflation is reemerging, we need to look at the numbers in context. October’s 2.4% year-over-year PPI reading is well below the peak of 11.7% seen in 2022. Still, PPI data is important because some of the components are factored into another inflation measure called Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). We will need to see if the hotter than expected PPI reading causes an upside surprise to PCE when it is reported later this month.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation rose 0.2% in October, with the annual reading coming in at 2.6%.While this was an uptick from the 2.4% 12-month rate seen in September, it was in line with what economists had forecasted.

The core measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% from September while the annual reading held steady at 3.3%. These figures also met expectations.

What’s the bottom line? The Fed began aggressively hiking their benchmark Fed Funds Rate (the overnight borrowing rate for banks) in March 2022 to try to slow the economy and curb the runaway inflation that became rampant after the pandemic. More recently, cooling consumer inflation and rising unemployment caused the Fed to start cutting the Fed Funds Rate, first by 50basis points at their meeting in September. A 25-basis point cut followed on November 7.

And while we have seen significant progress since inflation peaked in 2022, when Headline CPI hit 9.1% and Core CPI hit 6.6%,we are seeing an acceleration in the recent rate of change. For example, if we annualize the last six months of readings, the year-over-year rate of inflation for Core CPI would be 2.5%, while annualizing the last three months gives us a rate of 3.5%.

In a speech last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.” He added that the Fed will “carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks” as members consider the timing for further rate cuts.

With the Fed’s next meeting on December 18, key inflation reports to look for include the next Personal Consumption Expenditures (November 27) and Consumer Price Index (December 11). On the labor front, November’s Jobs Report (December6) will also be pivotal.

Fall is the perfect season to make this easy and delicious Butternut Squash Soup courtesy of Allrecipes. Serves 4.

In a large pot, melt 2 tablespoons butter over medium heat. Cook 1 small onion (chopped), 1 celery stalk (chopped), 1 mediumcarrot (chopped), 2 medium potatoes (cubed) and 1 medium butternut squash (peeled, seeded and cubed) until lightly browned,about 5 minutes. Pour in enough chicken stock to cover the vegetables.

Bring to a boil over medium-high heat. Reduce heat to low, cover pot and simmer until all vegetables are tender, about 40minutes. Transfer soup to a blender and process until smooth. Return to the pot and mix in additional chicken stock to reachdesired consistency. Season with salt and pepper to taste.

Enjoy with your favorite crusty bread.

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time rose by 3,000 in the latest week, as 221,000 InitialJobless Claims were reported. Continuing Claims rose by 39,000, with 1.892 million people still receiving benefits after filingtheir initial claim. This marks the highest amount since November 2021 as Continuing Claims have now topped 1.8 million for 22consecutive weeks.

What’s the bottom line?
While Initial Jobless Claims remain subdued, Continuing Claims have been trending higher as employershave clearly slowed down their pace of hiring. Generally, companies tend to stop hiring (which keeps people on benefits forlonger) before they start firing (which keeps first-time filers tame), and this also explains some of the dynamics in the data. This sentiment was also echoed by ZipRecruiter when they reported third quarter earnings, where they noted that “by severalmeasures this is one of the more prolonged downturns in hiring activity.”

CoreLogic’s Home Price Index showed that home prices nationwide rose 0.02% in September, and they were also 3.4% higherwhen compared to September of last year. CoreLogic forecasts that home prices will fall 0.1% in October and rise 2.3% in theyear going forward, though their forecasts tend to be conservative. ICE (formerly known as Black Knight) also reported that national home values rose 0.14% in September after seasonaladjustment, with their index showing that prices are 2.9% higher than a year ago.

What’s the bottom line?
Fall usually brings less competition in the housing market because families with school-age children liketo be settled ahead of a new school year. While this season is typically the softest for home price growth, these reports showthat appreciation remains healthy overall, and homeownership continues to provide wealth creation opportunities.

The Fed’s new easing cycle continued last week, as they cut their benchmark Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points, bringing itto a new range of 4.5% to 4.75%. This decision was unanimous and followed the 50-basis point cut the Fed made in September(which brought one dissent).
Note that when the Fed cuts rates, they are reducing the Fed Funds Rate, which is not mortgage rates or even a long-term rate.The Fed Funds Rate is a very short-term rate, literally a rate that’s only good overnight. Banks use this as the rate that they lendmoney to one another, but it is the building block for all interest rates.

What’s the bottom line?
The Fed’s decision to cut an additional 25 basis points instead of pausing shows their continuedconfidence that their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is in balance. In his press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed concerns that the progress to tame inflationhas stalled. While the latest Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed annual inflation was at 2.7% as ofSeptember, Powell noted that if we annualized the last three and six months of readings, Core PCE would be 2.32% and 2.28%respectively, which is closer to the Fed’s 2% target and in line with what the Fed wants to see. While Powell did not commit to any specific actions at the Fed’s next meeting on December 18, investors are still expectinganother 25-basis point cut at that time, with a pause coming at their meeting on January 29. However, expectations may change,in either direction, as economic data presents itself.

Daylight saving time ended Sunday. This is always a great reminder to make sure your emergency kit is ready for any colder weather that’s ahead. Ready.gov provides an easy checklist to follow.

For the basics, your kit should include batteries, flashlights, dust masks, whistle (to signal for help), moist towelettes, wrench or pliers, cell phone with chargers and a backup battery, first aid kit, one gallon of water per person per day for a minimum of three days, and a three-day supply of non-perishable food. Don’t forget a manual can opener!

Additional important items include prescription medicines, glass and contact lens solution, infant formula, pet food and supplies, cash, important family documents (such as insurance and bank information), sleeping bags and blankets, extra clothes, fire extinguisher, matches, personal hygiene items, paper towels and plates, paper and pencil, and games and other activities for children.

Remember to store your canned food in a cool, dry place and make a note to check your kit twice a year so you can replace expired items as needed.

The U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which was a solid but somewhatdisappointing Gross Domestic Product reading given that forecasts expected higher growth. By comparison, we saw 3% and1.6% growth in the second and first quarters of this year.

What’s the bottom line?
Economic activity in the third quarter was driven by consumer spending, exports and federal government spending. Note that this report was an advanced estimate and the data is subject to revisions when the second and final readings are released on November 27 and December 20, respectively.