November’s private sector job growth was weaker than economists had forecasted per ADP’s Employment Report, which showed that employers added 146,000 new jobs versus the 160,000 that were expected. October’s report was also revised lower from233,000 job creations to 184,000, subtracting 49,000 jobs from the previous report.

What’s the bottom line? Large businesses (500+ employees) accounted for the bulk of hiring last month as they added 120,000jobs, while small businesses (< 50 employees) continued to struggle, shedding 17,000 jobs. ADP also noted that performance among sectors was mixed, with manufacturing losing jobs and financial services and leisure/hospitality showing signs of softness.

However, the trend lower in wage growth did reverse course, with annual pay gains growing for both job-stayers (+4.8% from+4.7%, the first YoY increase in 25 months) and job changers (+7.2% from +6.7%). This could have been influenced by seasonalhires, as companies may have offered more incentives to workers ahead of the busy holiday shopping season, so it will besomething to monitor moving forward in upcoming reports.

Warm up this winter with this easy and delicious Hot Cocoa recipe courtesy of Allrecipes. Yields 4 servings.

Combine 3/4 cup sugar (or to taste), 1/3 cup unsweetened cocoa powder and a pinch of salt in a saucepan. Add 1 1/3 cupsboiling water and whisk until smooth. Bring mixture to a simmer, stirring continuously to avoid scorching, and cook for 2 minutes.Stir in 3 1/2 cups milk and heat until very hot without boiling. Remove from heat and add 3/4 teaspoon vanilla.

Divide hot cocoa evenly between 4 mugs, then divide 1/2 cup half-and-half evenly between the mugs to help cool cocoa to drinking temperature. Enjoy with your favorite toppings like mini marshmallows, whipped cream and chocolate shavings.

CoreLogic’s Home Price Index showed that home prices nationwide rose 0.02% in October, which was stronger than forecasts. Prices were also 3.4% higher when compared to October of last year. CoreLogic forecasts that home prices will fall 0.03% in November and rise 2.4% in the year going forward, though their forecasts tend to be conservative.

What’s the bottom line? CoreLogic’s appreciation data has been weaker than Case-Shiller’s, which is considered the gold standard in tracking changes in residential real estate values. For example, Case-Shiller’s latest report showed that home values nationwide were 3.9% higher in September than a year earlier, while the Federal Housing Finance Agency also reported 4.4%annual growth over that same period.

In addition, the fall usually brings less competition in the housing market because families with school-age children like to be settled ahead of a new school year. While this season is typically the softest for home price growth, these reports show that appreciation remains healthy overall.

Initial Jobless Claims rose 9,000 in the latest week, with 224,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. However, Continuing Claims fell by 25,000, as 1.871 million people are still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim. Despite this most recent decline, Continuing Claims remain elevated, now topping 1.8 million for the 26th week in a row.

What’s the bottom line? The low fire, low hire trend remains persistent, as employers continue to hold on to their workers while also slowing down their pace of hiring. This was also reflected in the latest Job Cuts report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which showed that hiring announcements fell to their lowest year-to-date level since 2015.

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that job openings rose from a downwardly revised 7.37million in September to 7.74 million in October, which was above what economists had forecasted. The hiring rate fell to 3.3%,which is the lowest level since 2013 not including COVID. The quit rate increased from 1.9% to 2.1%, bouncing slightly higher from the lowest level since 2015 excluding COVID.

What’s the bottom line? While the increase in job openings was unexpected and above estimates, the total may be weaker than the data implies, as the rise in remote work has led to job listings being posted in multiple states more frequently. Plus, a low quit rate also suggests there is less poaching from other companies and fewer people feel confident about finding new employment.

In addition, the job openings to unemployment ratio (which compares the number of job openings to the number of unemployed persons) is at 1.1. This is a big decline from the peak above 2 in 2022 and shows a labor market that is cooling.

November’s private sector job growth was weaker than economists had forecasted per ADP’s Employment Report, which showed that employers added 146,000 new jobs versus the 160,000 that were expected. October’s report was also revised lower from233,000 job creations to 184,000, subtracting 49,000 jobs from the previous report.

What’s the bottom line?
Large businesses (500+ employees) accounted for the bulk of hiring last month as they added 120,000jobs, while small businesses (< 50 employees) continued to struggle, shedding 17,000 jobs. ADP also noted that performance among sectors was mixed, with manufacturing losing jobs and financial services and leisure/hospitality showing signs of softness.

However, the trend lower in wage growth did reverse course, with annual pay gains growing for both job-stayers (+4.8% from+4.7%, the first YoY increase in 25 months) and job changers (+7.2% from +6.7%). This could have been influenced by seasonal hires, as companies may have offered more incentives to workers ahead of the busy holiday shopping season, so it will be something to monitor moving forward in upcoming reports.

National Brownie Day is December 8, though these Cocoa Brownies from Food Network make for a decadent dessert any day ofthe year. Yields 16 brownies.

Preheat oven to 300 degrees Fahrenheit. Butter and flour an 8-inch square pan.

In a mixer fitted with a whisk attachment, beat 4 large eggs at medium speed until fluffy and light yellow. Add 1 cup sifted sugar, 1 cup sifted brown sugar, 8 ounces melted butter, 1 1/4 cups sifted cocoa, 2 teaspoons vanilla extract, 1/2 cup sifted flour and 1/2 teaspoon Kosher salt. Mix to combine.

Pour the batter into the prepared pan and bake for 45 minutes or until a toothpick inserted in the center comes out clean. Remove to a rack to cool. Allow to cool completely before cutting.

Initial Jobless Claims inched down another 2,000 in the latest week to a 7-month low, with 213,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. However, Continuing Claims rose by 9,000 as 1.907 million people are still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.

What’s the bottom line? While the low level of Initial Claims shows that businesses still aren’t cutting many jobs, the rising number of people remaining on benefits suggests that jobs have become harder to find for people who are unemployed. This elevated trend in Continuing Claims has been persistent, as they have topped 1.8 million since the start of June (25 consecutiveweeks).

The U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter per the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate for that time period, matching their first estimate reported in October. By comparison, we saw 3% and 1.6% growth in the second and first quarters of this year.

What’s the bottom line? Economic activity in the third quarter was driven by consumer spending, exports, federal governmentspending and business investment. Note that this data is subject to revision when the final reading is released on December 19.

Home prices nationwide rose 0.3% from August to September after seasonal adjustment per Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index, helping home values reach an all-time high for the sixteenth straight month. Home values in September were also 3.9% higher than a year earlier, following a 4.3% gain in August. Case-Shiller’s index is considered the gold standard in tracking changes inresidential real estate values. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) House Price Index also showed that home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% from August to September, and they were 4.4% higher when compared to the same time last year. Note that FHFA’s Index doesnot include cash buyers or jumbo loans, only loans financed with conforming mortgages, which accounts for some of thedifferences in the reports.

What’s the bottom line? While home prices are continuing to appreciate, the pace is slower than earlier in the year. However, homeownership continues to provide a significant wealth creation opportunity. And if mortgage rates come back down, this could drive demand and potentially re-accelerate home price gains, given that supply also remains low on a historic basis.

Pending Home Sales, which are signed contracts on existing homes, rose 2% from September to October per the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). This marked the third consecutive monthly rise as sales were also 5.4% higher than they were a year earlier.

What’s the bottom line? Contract signings rose across all regions of the country in October as NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noted that “homebuying momentum is building after nearly two years of suppressed home sales.” Yun added that, “Even with mortgage rates modestly rising despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the short-term interbank lending rate in September, continuous job additions and more housing inventory are bringing more consumers to themarket.”

New Home Sales, which measure signed contracts on new homes, plunged 17.3% from September to October, with the 610,000-unit pace reaching the lowest level since November 2022. Signed contracts were also 9.4% lower than they were in October of last year. Regarding inventory, there were 481,000 new homes for sale at the end of October, which was up slightly from 471,000 in September. However, only 113,000 were completed, with the rest either under construction or not even started yet, so moreavailable supply is still needed.

What’s the bottom line? Almost the entire decline in October’s signed contracts came in the South, which was severely impactedby Hurricanes Helene and Milton during this time. In addition, rates moved higher in October while some buyers also mentionedthey were staying on the sidelines until after the election.

These factors combined all contributed to October’s decrease in activity for new construction homes.

October’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed that headline inflation rose 0.2% from September, while the year-over-year reading rose from 2.1% to 2.3%. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure which strips out volatile food and energyprices, rose 0.3% monthly. The year-over-year reading increased from 2.7% to 2.8%, remaining near the lowest level in over three years.

What’s the bottom line? While annual inflation did move higher in the wrong direction, the increase is partly due to a lower figure from October 2023, which was removed from the rolling 12-month calculation and replaced with October 2024’s 0.3% reading. Looking ahead, readings for January through April 2024 are higher comparisons, meaning progress lower toward the Fed’s 2%target may be easier next year when those figures are replaced.

This homemade Cranberry Sauce courtesy of the Food Network is an easy way to elevate this classic Thanksgiving staple. Yields 6 to 8 servings.

In a medium pot, combine 1 pound of fresh cranberries (washed and dried), 2 cups sugar and 1/3 cup water. Stir to blend and bring to boil over medium heat. Reduce to a simmer and add 1 cinnamon stick, 1/2 teaspoon ground allspice, and 1/4 teaspoon ground nutmeg.

Stir to blend and simmer for an additional 5 to 7 minutes. Some of the cranberries will burst while some will remain whole. Add the juice and zest of 1 orange and stir. Cool before serving.

The Conference Board released their latest Leading Economic Index (LEI), which takes a broad look at the economy and tracks where it’s heading in the near term. October brought a 0.4% drop, which followed September’s 0.3% decline. The biggest negative contributor last month was the weak manufacturing sector.

What’s the bottom line? The LEI has trended negative in recent years, with Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, noting that “apart from possible temporary impacts of hurricanes, the US LEI continued to suggest challenges to economic activity ahead.”