Another 243,000 people filed new unemployment claims in the latest week, marking an increase of 20,000 from the previous week and tying the highest level since early June. Continuing Claims also rose by 20,000, as 1.867 million people are still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.

What’s the bottom line? The pace of layoffs continues to move higher, as does the number of people who are already collecting benefits. Plus, this latest Initial Jobless Claims reading was an important real-time report because it includes the sample week that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will use in the modeling for their job growth estimates for July’s Jobs Report. While this is just one component, the high reading of 243,000 initial unemployment claims could point to weaker job growth when July’s report is released on August 2.

There have been growing calls for the Fed to cut their benchmark Fed Funds Rates at their meeting on September 18, given signs of cooling inflation, rising unemployment and a softening job market. Labor sector data released between now and then will play a pivotal role in this decision.

Retail Sales stayed flat in June, though this was better than the outright decline that had been expected. Sales in May were also revised upward from the originally reported 0.1% gain to a 0.3% gain when compared to April.

What’s the bottom line? While this report was better than estimates, there has been growing evidence that consumers are spending more cautiously in the face of rising unemployment and a slowing labor market. The Fed will be closely watching future Retail Sales reports, as the strength of our economy will impact their monetary policy decisions this year.

After a disappointing May, new home construction ticked higher in June as Housing Starts and Building Permits both came in above estimates. However, the increase was led by a boost in multi-family projects, as starts and permits for single-family homes both moved lower.

What’s the bottom line? Softer than expected construction activity this spring could limit much needed supply down the road, especially among single-family homes. This bodes well for appreciation and shows that opportunities remain to build wealth through homeownership.

Confidence among home builders remains below the key breakeven threshold of 50, per the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), as their Housing Market Index dropped 1 point to 42 in July. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since December as higher rates continue to dampen sentiment. Scores over 50 on this index, which runs from 0 to 100, indicate that most builders feel confident about the current and near-term housing market outlook, whereas lower readings signify there’s less optimism among builders.

What’s the bottom line? Though all three index components (buyer traffic, current and future sales expectations) remained below 50, NAHB Chair, Carl Harris, noted that “the six-month sales expectation for builders moved higher, indicating that builders expect mortgage rates to edge lower later this year as inflation data are showing signs of easing.”

It’s National Ice Cream Month. Add chocolate chunks, cookie crumbs and nuts to this simple No Churn Recipe for an easy homemade treat! Yields 10 to 12 servings.

Place a 9-by-5-inch loaf plan in the freezer. In a medium bowl, combine 1 14-ounce can sweetened condensed milk, 1 1/2 teaspoons vanilla extract and a pinch of salt. Whisk until thoroughly blended. In a large bowl, beat 2 cups chilled heavy cream with an electric mixer until stiff peaks form. Add about 1 cup of the whipped cream to the sweetened condensed milk mixture and stir gently until well blended.

Pour the condensed milk mixture into the remaining whipped cream and fold with a spatula until no streaks remain. Pour ice cream into the chilled loaf pan and spread evenly. Return to freezer.

Mix in chocolate chunks, cookie crumbs and coarsely chopped toasted pecans after around 2 hours (ice cream should be firm but soft enough to stir in ingredients). Swirl to distribute the add-ins and return pan to freezer. Freeze until very firm, at least 3 more hours.

Initial Jobless Claims fell by 17,000 in the latest week, with 222,000 people filing new unemployment claims. Continuing Claims also fell by 4,000, as 1.852 million people are still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.

What’s the bottom line? While Initial Jobless Claims fell to their lowest level since May, the measured week included July 4 and this could have impacted the data as people often put off filing during holiday weeks.

Continuing Claims measured the week before Independence Day, so they were unaffected by the holiday. These Claims have now topped 1.8 million for the last five weeks, remaining near some of the highest levels seen in recent years and suggesting that it’s becoming harder for people to find a new job once they’re let go.

Again, the Fed will be watching for any sustained rise in unemployment claims as they weigh monetary policy and the timing for rate cuts this year.

While the Fed has a dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, in recent years they’ve been more focused on taming out-of-control inflation, given that the labor market has been strong. However, in his testimony to Congress last week, Powell acknowledged that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” as the job market has “cooled considerably.”

What’s the bottom line? Powell also noted that economic growth has moderated after a strong expansion in the second half of last year. Cooling consumer inflation combined with signs that the economy and job market are slowing have led to growing calls for the Fed to begin cutting their benchmark Fed Funds Rate, with growing odds that a cut may occur at their meeting on September 17-18. The inflation and labor market reports released ahead of that meeting will play a pivotal role in this decision.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation on the wholesale level, was hotter than expected in June while May’s readings were also revised higher. Headline PPI rose 0.2% last month, with the annual reading also up from 2.4% to 2.6%. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% and the year-over-year reading increased from 2.6% to 3%.

What’s the bottom line? After June’s cool consumer inflation report, wholesale inflation surprised to the upside. While the PPI report did not move the markets when it was released on Friday, the data is important because some of the components are factored into another inflation measure called Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). We will need to see if this causes PCE to be hotter than expected as a result, but thus far expectations are for a low PCE reading when that data is released on July 26.

There was more encouraging news regarding inflation as June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% from May. This marked the first monthly decline since the start of the pandemic and helped push the annual reading lower from 3.3% to 3%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.1% for the month while the annual reading declined from 3.4% to 3.3%.

All these measures were softer than estimates, as moderating gasoline and shelter costs were key reasons for the friendly numbers.

What’s the bottom line? Remember, the Fed hiked its benchmark Fed Funds Rate eleven times between March 2022 and July 2023 to a two-decade high to fight inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in 2022. Their goal with this series of hikes was to slow borrowing and spending so pricing pressure would shrink and inflation would come under control.

The Fed has repeatedly said that they do not plan to cut rates until members have gained greater confidence that annual inflation is moving sustainably toward their 2 percent target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this sentiment last Tuesday and Wednesday during his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, which occurred ahead of Thursday’s CPI release (more on his testimony below).

June’s CPI data followed better than expected numbers in both April and May, giving the Fed another welcome sign that inflationary pressures are easing, especially after readings in the first quarter of this year were unexpectedly high.

These Sugar Cookies from Allrecipes are easy to make and perfect for marking National Sugar Cookie Day on July 9. Yields 4 dozen.

Preheat oven to 375 degrees Fahrenheit. In a small bowl, stir together 2 3/4 cups all-purpose flour, 1 teaspoon baking soda, and 1/2 teaspoon baking powder. In a large bowl, beat 1 1/2 cups sugar and 1 cup softened butter with an electric mixer until smooth. Beat in 1 egg and 1 teaspoon vanilla. Gradually blend in flour mixture.

Roll dough into walnut-sized balls and place 2 inches apart on ungreased baking sheets. Bake until edges are golden, around 8 to 10 minutes. Cool on the baking sheets briefly before removing to a wire rack to cool completely.

CoreLogic’s Home Price Index showed that home prices nationwide rose 0.6% in May after rising 1.1% in April and 1.2% in March, showing it’s been a strong season for home values nationwide. Prices are also 4.9% higher when compared to May of last year. CoreLogic forecasts that home prices will rise 0.7% in June and 3% in the year going forward, though their forecasts tend to be conservative. ICE (formally known as Black Knight) also reported that national home values rose 0.3% in May after seasonal adjustment, with their index showing that prices are 4.6% higher than a year ago.

What’s the bottom line? The latest rise in home prices reported by CoreLogic and ICE echoes the strong growth seen by other major indices like Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. These reports continue to demonstrate why homeownership remains a good opportunity for building wealth through real estate.

Initial Jobless Claims rose by 4,000 in the latest week, with 238,000 people filing new unemployment claims. Continuing Claims rose by 26,000, as 1.858 million people are still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.

What’s the bottom line? Both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims trended higher in June, with Initial Claims above 230,000 and Continuing Claims topping 1.8 million in each of the last four weeks. The Fed is closely watching for any rising trends in unemployment claims as they weigh monetary policy and the timing for rate cuts, given their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that job openings rose slightly to 8.14 million in May, though April’s openings were revised lower from 8.059 million to 7.919 million. The quit rate held steady at 2.2% while the hiring rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6%.

What’s the bottom line? Job openings in April and May were at the lowest levels since February 2021 and are now well below the high of 12 million hit in 2022. Plus, the quit rate has also fallen over the last year, suggesting there is less poaching from other companies and fewer people feel confident about finding new employment. Overall, this data is another sign that weakness is building in the labor sector.