June is National Mango Month and these Mango Pops courtesy of Delish make for a refreshing and delicious treat. Yields 9.
In a blender, combine 2 10-ounce bags frozen mango, 1/2 cup orange juice, and 1/4 cup lime juice and blend until smooth. Spray a 9-by-5-inch loaf pan with cooking spray (to help the plastic wrap stick in place) and line all sides with plastic wrap. Pour the mango mixture into the loaf pan and cover with foil.
Make evenly spaced holes in the foil with a paring knife for the popsicle sticks. Insert a stick into each hole and freeze until completely frozen, around 4 hours. Using the plastic wrap, remove popsicles from loaf pan to a work surface. Remove the plastic wrap, cut popsicles into individual pieces, and serve frozen.
Initial Jobless Claims rose by 3,000 in the latest week, with 219,000 people filing new unemployment claims. There were also 1.791 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim, as Continuing Claims increased by 4,000.
What’s the bottom line? With the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report showing that the pace of hiring has slowed over the past year, it will be important to see if an uptick in unemployment claims continues. As noted above, Fed members are closely watching for signs of labor sector softening as they weigh the timing for rate cuts this year.
The U.S. economy grew more slowly than previously thought during the first quarter, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as their second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for that period showed 1.3% growth. This was down from the 1.6% pace that was initially reported and well below the 3.4% growth seen in the fourth quarter of last year.
Note this data is subject to one more revision when the final reading is released on June 27.
What’s the bottom line? GDP functions as a scorecard for the country’s economic health, so signs of a slowdown are a concern. They also coincide with the Fed’s latest Beige Book survey of regional Fed bank districts, which showed that “overall outlooks grew somewhat more pessimistic amid reports of rising uncertainty and greater downside risks.”
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is considered the “gold standard” for appreciation, showed home prices nationwide rose 0.3% from February to March after seasonal adjustment. Home values in March were also 6.5% higher than a year earlier, unchanged from the previous report.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) House Price Index also reported a 0.1% jump in home prices from February to March, with prices 6.7% higher than the previous year. Note that FHFA does not include cash buyers or jumbo loans, and these factors account for some of the differences in the two reports.
What’s the bottom line? March’s report “boasts another all-time high” for home prices, confirmed S&P DJI’s Head of Commodities, Brian D. Luke. “On a seasonal adjusted basis, national home prices have reached their ninth all-time high within the past year, with all 20 metropolitan markets posting positive annual gains for the fourth consecutive month, indicating widespread and sustained growth in the housing sector.”
These indexes show that homeownership remains a fantastic opportunity for families to create wealth through appreciation gains.
Pending Home Sales fell 7.7% from March to April per the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), coming in well below estimates of a modest decline. Sales were also 7.4% lower than they were a year earlier. This report measures signed contracts on existing homes, making it an important forward-looking indicator for closings on these homes as measured in the Existing Home Sales report.
What’s the bottom line? The Pending Home Sales index took a big turn lower in April after a strong reading in March, with NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, explaining, “The impact of escalating interest rates throughout April dampened home buying, even with more inventory in the market.”
April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed that headline inflation rose 0.3% from March, with the year-over-year reading holding steady at 2.7%. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred method which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.2% monthly. The year-over-year reading remained at 2.8%, stalling progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.
What’s the bottom line? The Fed has been working hard to tame inflation, hiking its benchmark Fed Funds Rate (which is the overnight borrowing rate for banks) eleven times between March 2022 and July 2023. These hikes were designed to slow the economy by making borrowing more expensive and lowering the demand for goods, so pricing pressure and inflation would shrink.
The Fed has held rates steady since last September because inflation had been making good progress lower late last year before stalling more recently. Fed members have emphasized that they do not expect to cut rates until they’re confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards their 2% target.
However, a sharp rise in the unemployment rate (which has been in a narrow range between 3.7% and 3.9% since last August) could also impact the Fed’s timing for rate cuts, given their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The unemployment rate for May will be reported this Friday.
Celebrate National Scone Day on May 30 with these delicious Currant Scones from Martha Stewart. Yields 12 scones.
Preheat oven to 425 degrees Fahrenheit. Line a baking sheet with parchment paper.
In a large bowl, stir together 2 cups all-purpose flour, 2 teaspoons baking powder, 1/4 teaspoon baking soda, 1/2 teaspoon salt and 2 tablespoons granulated sugar. Use a pastry blender to cut in 1/2 cup (1 stick) cold unsalted butter until mixture resembles coarse crumb. Stir in 3/4 cup dried currants. Make a well in the center and add 1/2 cup low-fat buttermilk and 1 large egg (lightly beaten). Stir until just combined; do not overmix.
Transfer dough to a lightly floured work surface and knead 5 or 6 times. Pat into an 8-inch disk. Use a floured 2 1/4-inch biscuit cutter to cut dough into rounds. Reroll scraps and cut additional scones.
Place scones on prepared baking sheet, about 1 1/2 inches apart. Brush with 1 tablespoon milk and sprinkle with 1 tablespoon sugar. Bake until scones are golden brown, around 12 to 15 minutes. Cool on a wire rack. Serve warm or at room temperature with your favorite jam.
The number of people filing new unemployment claims declined by 8,000, with 215,000 Initial Jobless Claims reported in the latest week. This followed a decline of 9,000 in the previous week, marking the biggest back-to-back drop since September. Continuing Claims rose by 8,000, with 1.794 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.
What’s the bottom line? Initial Jobless Claims came in below estimates, while Continuing Claims are also still trending near some of the hottest levels we’ve seen in recent years. The dynamic we’ve been seeing in the labor sector continues, where employers are trying to hold on to workers, but once people are let go it’s more challenging for them to find new employment.
Note that this was an important real-time report because it includes the sample week that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will use in the modeling for their job growth estimates for May’s Jobs Report. While this is just one component, the low reading of 215,000 initial unemployment claims could point to strong job growth when May’s report is released June 7.
The Fed will be closely analyzing this report for signs of labor sector softening as it weighs the timing for rate cuts this year.
The minutes from the Fed’s April 30-May 1 meeting were released last week, which showed that members had growing concerns about inflation. This wasn’t a surprise, given that the meeting followed a string of reports showing inflation was more persistent than expected in the first quarter of this year. Since the Fed met, reports have shown cooler inflation as well as slower job growth, a rising unemployment rate and flat retail sales.
Last week also brought a parade of Fed speakers that included notable comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who echoed several of his colleagues when he said, “In the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy.”
An easing of monetary policy would bring cuts to the Fed’s benchmark Fed Funds Rate, which is the overnight borrowing rate for banks.
What’s the bottom line? Remember the Fed has been working hard to tame inflation, hiking the Fed Funds Rate eleven times between March 2022 and July 2023. These hikes were designed to slow the economy by making borrowing more expensive, so the demand for goods would be lowered, thereby reducing pricing pressure and inflation.
While inflation was making good progress lower late last year, readings throughout the first quarter of this year were unexpectedly high, causing the Fed to hold the Fed Funds Rate steady as they take a more patient approach to rate cuts than initially thought.
However, as Waller’s comments suggest, a sharp rise in the unemployment rate (which has been in a narrow range between 3.7% and 3.9% since August) could also impact the timing for rate cuts, given the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
New Home Sales, which measure signed contracts on new homes, fell 4.7% from March to April, missing forecasts that were expecting them to rise. Signed contracts were also 7.7% lower than they were in April of last year.
What’s the bottom line? This report measures buyers who were shopping for homes last month when rates peaked, so the pullback is understandable as some buyers chose to delay their home search.
However, demand for new construction remains strong due to the persistent shortage of existing homes for sale. On that note, more “available” supply is needed to meet buyer demand. While there were 480,000 new homes available for sale at the end of April, slightly higher than the 470,000 seen in the previous report, only 98,000 were completed, with the rest either under construction or not even started yet.
Also, the median home price fell 1.4% from March but this was not due to falling home prices, which continue to rise nationwide per Case-Shiller and other appreciation indexes. The median home price represents the mid-price of sales, meaning it’s influenced by the mix of sales in any given month. Builders are constructing smaller, more affordable homes to meet buyer demand, and that pushed the median home price lower comparatively.
Sales of existing homes fell 1.9% in April to a 4.14-million-unit annualized pace, per the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), though sales in March were revised higher and this offset some of the decline.
This report measures closings on existing homes in April and likely reflects people shopping for homes in February and March.
What’s the bottom line? While the pace of sales declined in April, the speed at which homes sold accelerated. Homes remained on the market for a shorter period in April, with the 26-day average down from 33 days in March. Plus, 27% of homes sold above list price. These factors both signal that demand and competition remain during this spring buying season, even in the face of elevated rates.
Inventory also saw a boost, as the 1.21 million homes available for sale at the end of April were up 9% from March and 16.3% from a year earlier. While this remains below healthy levels at just a 3.5 months’ supply at the current sales pace, rising inventory is certainly a step in the right direction to help improve ongoing tight supply.
Housing highlights include April’s Existing Home Sales on Wednesday and New Home Sales on Thursday. The latest Jobless Claims will also be reported on Thursday.
Plus, the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting will be released on Wednesday and a parade of Fed speakers throughout the week always has the potential to move the markets.
Get ready for barbecue season with this easy and delicious recipe for Grilled Vegetables courtesy of the Food Network. Yields 6 servings.
Place a grill pan over medium high heat or turn on your barbecue to medium-high. Cut 3 red bell peppers in half. Gather 3 yellow squash, 3 zucchini, and 3 Japanese eggplant and slice them lengthwise into 1/2-inch-thick rectangles. Trim 1 pound of asparagus, cut the roots off 12 green onions, and clean 12 cremini mushrooms.
Add vegetables to a large dish and brush with 1/4 cup olive oil to coat and season with salt and pepper. Grill the vegetables until tender and lightly charred, about 8 to 10 minutes for the bell peppers; 7 minutes for the squash, zucchini, eggplant, and mushrooms; and 4 minutes for the asparagus and onions.
Arrange the vegetables on a platter and drizzle with an herb mixture of 2 tablespoons olive oil, 3 tablespoons balsamic vinegar, 2 cloves minced garlic, 1 teaspoon chopped Italian parsley, 1 teaspoon chopped basil, 1/2 teaspoon chopped rosemary, and salt and pepper to taste.
Initial Jobless Claims fell by 10,000 in the latest week as 222,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continuing Claims rose 13,000, with 1.794 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.
What’s the bottom line? While Initial Jobless Claims declined from the previous week, they remain in breakout territory above the low levels that were recently reported (ranging from 208,000 to 213,000 in nine of the ten weeks before these last two reports). Continuing Claims are also still trending near some of the hottest levels we’ve seen in recent years.
This data follows other recent reports that suggest softening in the labor sector, such as weaker than expected job growth in April, declining job openings, and the low quit rate. If softer employment data continues, this could pressure the Fed to cut the Fed Funds Rate, given their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
There are signs that consumers are reining in their spending, as Retail Sales were unchanged from March to April. Sales in March were also revised downward from the originally reported 0.7% gain to a 0.6% gain when compared to February.
What’s the bottom line? The pause in spending last month was a miss on estimates, as forecasters had predicted a 0.4% gain. But with credit card balances reaching $1.12 trillion at the end of the first quarter (per the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit) and pandemic-era savings fully spent as of March 2024 per San Francisco Fed analysts, a slowdown in discretionary spending is also not surprising.
The Fed will be closely watching future Retail Sales reports, as the strength of our economy will also impact their monetary policy decisions this year.
