The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that job openings rose from a downwardly revised 7.37million in September to 7.74 million in October, which was above what economists had forecasted. The hiring rate fell to 3.3%,which is the lowest level since 2013 not including COVID. The quit rate increased from 1.9% to 2.1%, bouncing slightly higher from the lowest level since 2015 excluding COVID.
What’s the bottom line? While the increase in job openings was unexpected and above estimates, the total may be weaker than the data implies, as the rise in remote work has led to job listings being posted in multiple states more frequently. Plus, a low quit rate also suggests there is less poaching from other companies and fewer people feel confident about finding new employment.
In addition, the job openings to unemployment ratio (which compares the number of job openings to the number of unemployed persons) is at 1.1. This is a big decline from the peak above 2 in 2022 and shows a labor market that is cooling.