Latest LEI and Beige Book Suggest Slowing Economic Activity

The Conference Board released their latest Leading Economic Index (LEI), which takes a broad look at the economy and tracks where it’s heading in the near term. June brought a 0.2% drop, which followed May’s upwardly revised 0.4% decline.

What’s the bottom line? “The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,” explained Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators. The Conference Board predicts that “economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead,” with cooling consumer spending pushing “GDP growth down to around 1% (annualized) in Q3 of this year.”

This correlates with the Fed’s latest Beige Book, which is a survey of economic conditions around the country. Five of the Fed’s 12 districts reported flat or declining economic growth, which was up from only two districts six weeks ago.